The latest info about COVID-19, the Delta variant and vaccinations:- There appears to be a decline of vaccine effectiveness, but not as bad as was shown in Israel. Numbers like drop to 39% after six months might be closer to double that number.
- Further, those who are vaccinated, if so unfortunate as to get infected, almost always get mild symptoms, and few die.
- The Delta variant is around twice (maybe 60%) as infectious as the Alpha original, but causes more severe illnesses, as the hospitalization rate is double that of the Alpha. This is why hospitals are today overburdened
- 98% of the new cases are those who are unvaccinated.
- From the New York Times this morning:
- Those who are fully vaccinated have a one chance in 5000/day of being infected.
- In some of the safer states where more were vaccinated, this chance improves to 1 in 10,000/day. Thus, in a 3-month period, the vaccinated here have a 1% chance of contracting COVID-19. And if they do, odds are 1 in 50 that they will be hospitalized.
- Those states with a higher vaccination rate have fewer infections:
- TO SUMMARIZE: DELTA IS A PROBLEM, WHILE VACCINE HESITATION IS A BIGGER PROBLEM.
- In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot. In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.
- In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.
- Yet, you need to take this pandemic seriously. Here is a graphic that was published in June of last year:
- As there are now 666,785 total COVID-19 deaths, the odds of you dying relative to others living in the USA are up to 1:500.
- That number to the right will only continue to drop as more die, but the valid analysis today has more to do with what your odds are if you are vaccinated or not.
- A report in June of this year said that fewer than 1200 of 107,000 hospitalizations were those fully vaccinated, or about 1.1%
- Further, only 150 deaths of more than 18,000 Covid-19 deaths in May, or 0.8%
- Cranking this number into the above odds table will give you a 1:50,000 chance of dying from this disease if you are vaccinated!
- Plus, it's almost unfair to compare COVID-19 with death from lightning or tornado. This is almost shocking, but, according to this article, the odds of dying are:
- car 1:107
- pedestrian accident: 1:500
- motorcycle: 1:800 (this is surprising)
- plane passenger 1:188,364
- drowning 1:1117
- opiod overdose 1:92
- falling 1:106
- Different reports give different results. Here the National Safety Council says that car crashes are the fifth highest cause of death for Americans.
- car 1:102
- train: 178,741
- plane: 205,552
- Plane odds depend on the year.
- Cruise odds are similar to airplanes, except recreational boats have higher fatality rates.
- This is why I almost dread driving and feel safer on an airplane or train.
- After I get my booster shot, my safest bet will be to avoid automobiles, and stick to planes, ships and trains on a long trip or two. You can almost do this in many countries like Japan. Also, don't go swimming, don't walk on the streets, use a cane to prevent falling and don't use sleeping pills.
- What will happen in the month of September?
- In-person schooling will be attempted and is just beginning.
- Children 0-11 cannot yet be vaccinated.
- We just went through the Labor Day weekend.
- A good many schools will be forced to return to distance learning after outbreaks.
- These infected students will transmit the disease to family and friends.
- I fear the numbers a week to two from now.
- Booster shots will begin. I'm scheduled to get mine in October.
- The flu season begins, but much like last year, the numbers should be low, as mask-wearing will make a difference.
- However, get your flu shot.
- The 2020-2021 flu season tallied ONLY 2,038 cases, total.
- The 2019-2-20 flu season had 38 MILLION cases.
- As more and more get vaccinated and boosted, and considering that the incidence of death among the very young is low, hospitals should begin to open up by the end of the month.
- The next challenge will be Thanksgiving, for families tend to get together.
So, unto my topic of the day, do you know who are the two women below?
Monica Lewinsky today on top, and Beanie Feldstein as Monica during that 1995-7 period, tonight (time depends on where you live...7PM in Hawaii) on your FX channel (554 on Spectrum Hawaii), in Impeachment, the third effort of American Crime Stories. There will be 10 episodes, all on Tuesday night beginning September 7. Rotten Tomatoes only gave it a 72 rating. The first of the ACS series came in 2016 with The People versus O.J. Simpson, which RT loved, bestowing 97/94 scores, followed in 2018 with The Assassination of Gianni Versace, RT: 89/94.
The series is based on the 1999 book by Jeffrey Toobin. He also wrote that O.J. Simpson 1996 book that became the first in this ACS trio. Toobin had a Zoom incident last year of a provocative nature, but he more recently appeared on CNN, so maybe he resurrected his career.
Lewinsky is active as a co-producer. Clive Owen plays Bill and Edie Falco is Hillary.
My weekly walk on a golf course will need to be rested for at least a month because the person who always gets the time, my neighbor John, will not be able to play during that period. In the meantime, a few days ago I weighed myself and was a couple of pounds above my desired weight. I still splurged a bit by finding a rib eye in my freezer, which served as the basis for two meals. First on Friday night, I fried it in Japanese wagyu fat and had a portion of it as steak with some hamachi sashimi:
I couldn't eat all of the meat, so had it the next day as a steak sandwich while watching NCAA football:
For dinner, 15 Craigside delivered some pork tonkatsu, so I fried it in butter to enhance the taste and make the outside more crispy. Had the leftover hamachi and a lot of sliced cabbage:
The beer is Orion from Okinawa, not pronounced like that constellation, but ORI-ON.
Sunday night I had a simple chazuke with salmon and ahi (yellow-fin tuna or maguro) sashimi:
Then for my Labor Day birthday celebratory feast, I first drove to Happy Days to get some Peking Duck. Actually, I questioned whether I should drive there because of the above chances of dying.
This is an award-winning Chinese restaurant in Honolulu.
Wait a minute, Johnny Walker is from Scotland. Yes, but in much of Hawaii's past, Johnny Walker Black Label was the featured scotch for a Chinese 12-course dinner. I couldn't find one in my cabinet, so I upgraded to Gold Label. No drinks from China? I just don't like the taste of Mao Tai. Plus, thanks to President Richard Nixon, you can't find a decent bottle for less than $100 today, and the expensive ones cost more than $1000.
As this was my birthday dinner, I lightly warmed a custard pie provided by 15 Craigside and had a dessert:
I used the leftovers to make duck soup.
This is the end of the season for both Pearl's sunburst and my calamansi:
A different view in the Ewa direction from my apartment:
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