We are on the Norwegian Encore from Miami to Southampton, UK, and will be at-sea for the next few days. This gives me an opportunity to wonder how the USA got to the point where a convicted criminal, liar, misogynist and all-around lout, former president Donald Trump, has a 50-50 chance of getting re-elected tomorrow.
- Most of them have gone through our K-12 school system, which, in addition to academics, teaches you to be a good citizen, with some pride regarding our country. Just about all states require students to daily recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Written by minister Francis Bellamy in 1892, it is short, simple and meaningful.
I pledge allegiance to my Flag and the Republic for which it stands, one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
- This was adjusted in 1954 when President Dwight Eisenhower, concerned about the Communist threat, asked Congress to add "under God."
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
No one remembers this early version anymore, but until World War II, there was a military salute, where you lifted your right hand to salute the flag, then at the words, to my Flag, you gracefully extended your palm upward towards the Flag, remaining in this gesture, until the end, then immediately drop your right hand to your side.- However, this salute too much resembled the Nazi salute, so was changed to place the right hand over the heart.
- True, saying the Pledge of Allegiance, and believing it to be meaningful, are not the same. But this exercise is probably better than nothing at all.
Second, most Americans are religious.- Gallup has been regularly asking since 1944, Do you believe in God?
- In 2022, 81% responded, YES. Mind you, this was 92% in 2012, so this drop was rather drastic.
- Further, the answer was YES to 98% in the 50s and 60s.
- Gallup has another poll, which in 2023 indicated that 12% of Americans do not believe in God.
The whole point to this religion matter is that, one would think that most religious people would not vote for an individual who lies, breaks laws, thinks only about himself and is vitriolic to the point of being dangerous. This person is Donald Trump, whose character is the polar opposite of Kamala Harris, who is trustworthy and promotes freedom.- In any community, down to most families, there are extremes. There are good people and bad. All in all, though, the U.S. has had a populace that has come together during wars, calamities and crises.
- If not for our country, Hitler and his Axis partners could well have prevailed during World War II. Where would you be had that occurred?
- If the U.S. had not prevailed in the Cold War, which ended in 1992, where would Humanity be today?
We are today at a similar tipping point.- If Donald Trump is tomorrow elected President of the United States, all signs point toward the end of our 249-year Democracy, to a future Paternalism, a dictatorship, not unlike North Korea where the person in power determined the next leader.
- The Supreme Court on 1July2024 ruled that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted for what he does. There was some gray language, left to lower courts to act, but the judicial system largely makes reversal unlikely, for the final decision still remains in the hands of the Supreme Court. They have taken away any guardrails that checked Trump in his first presidency.
- There will be no opposition. Those that try will will be jailed or killed.
- There will be no future election. They don't vote in North Korea, and elections are determined by Vladimir Putin in Russia. Not much different in China.
Donald Trump wants to join the Dictators for Life Club of Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. They will form a new axis, providing for you a life now seen in North Korea, Russian and China.
- If Kamala Harris is elected, the American Democracy will continue. Simple as that.
A superficial analysis is the following.
- The latest (October 27) Gallup poll shows that there are 29% Republicans, 32% Democrats and 37% Independents.
- Trump will get his MAGA group no matter what he does
- MAGA Republicans, as defined, are estimated to account for 33.6% of all Republicans and 15.0% of the adult population of the US.
- Thus, there are 76.4% of Republicans who are not MAGA types.
- There seem to be more and more Republicans becoming never-Trumpers.
- Thus, if only a very few Republicans either not vote on November 5 or vote for Harris, that should be enough to doom Trump.
- The key to victory will be Independents. There are more of them than Democrats or Republicans. There should be more never-Trumpers who are Independent than converted Republicans.
- A poll in March of this year showed that 81% thought Democracy is being threatened.
- The one key point of information is that a New York Times/Siena poll today reported that of the 8% of voters who had only recently decided, 55% went with Kamala Harris and 44% with Donald Trump.
Four years ago, I went to sleep, and so did Donald Trump, thinking that he had prevailed over Joe Biden. It took several days for things to sort out, completely reversing the results by the weekend.
- What happened was that Republicans tended to vote on voting day, while Democrats cast mail-in ballots.
- Same day results were announced first.
- Over the next few days, six key states, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, went to Biden. The difference was 10,457 in Arizona, 12,670 in Georgia, 33,596 in Nevaa and 20,662 in Wisconsin.
- Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College. And Biden, nationwide, beat Trump by 7 million votes, He beat Trump by 74 electoral votes.
- In 2016, just under 80,000 votes in three of those six states made Trump the victor.
- All signs point to those same six states again making the difference, plus North Carolina.
- Arizona 11
- Georgia 16
- Michigan 15
- Nevada 6
- Pennsylvania 19
- Wisconsin 10
- North Carolina 16
There is one more voting group of possible relevance. Overseas.- 4.4 million people live abroad, and 2.8 million ae eligible to vote.
- Each voter must register, and follow the regulations of their state.
- Very complicated, and few actually go through the process.
- In 2020 7.8% cast ballots, and the state allowed is your last residence in the U.S.
- Theoretically, there are 1.6 million overseas voters for those 7 battleground states. Say 10% vote this year, that would be 160,000 split among those states. Overseas voters tend to vote for Democrats. So if any state comes down to victory with only a very few votes difference, this group could well make the difference. These votes tend to be counted late, but they do count.
So the chances are that the new President of the USA won't be known on November 5. It could well take into the weekend, or later if really close, for votes will be contested. A least this time on January 6, the Vice President Mike Pence will be Vice President Kamala Harris. The sitting president is Joe Biden, not Donald Trump. There is hope for Democracy.
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