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WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF ISRAEL?

You must know by now that Iran finally responded on their revenge for the assassination of Hamas leader  Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran on 31July2024, compounded by those pager/walkie talkie explosions and bombing death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

  • Sent 180 or ballistic missiles to Israel from Iran.  Almost 90% got intercepted, but that means at least 20 succeeded.  However, no fatalities.
  • Remember that earlier revenge strike by Iran in April for Israel bombing their militia in Syria?  More than 300 missiles, of which 99% were intercepted?
  • I think the drop in interceptions this time was that there were only two destroyers helping the Iron Dome, which was funded by President Barack Obama.  In April, at least one aircraft carrier helped in the defense.
  • The question is what's next?
    • Was that all from Iran?  Early reports indicate that was it.
    • Will Israel retaliate?  In April, they didn't because there were no civilian deaths.  This time, again no deaths, although just as the missiles came crashing, a lone Palestinian terrorist shooter killed at least nine people in Tel Aviv.  
So what is the future of Israel?  First some history.
  • You need to go back to biblical times.  See the evolution.
  • Israel appeared for the first time around 1200 BC.  Israelites branched out of the Canaanite peoples and spoke an archaic form of Hebrew.
  • David killed Goliath around 1012 BC, and became the first Israelite King.
  • The Kingdom of Israel existed by 900 BC and was conquered around 720 BC, becoming the Kingdom of Judah under Davidic rule with its capital in Jerusalem.  Population, around 400,000.
  • In 586 BC or so, King Nebuchadnezzar II destroyed Jerusalem and Solomon's Temple, dissolving the Kingdom and exiling much of the Judean elite to Babylon, which was located 50 miles south of what today is Baghdad, Iraq.
  • In 539 BC, Cyrus the Great allowed the exiled Judean population to return to Judah, a region located between the Mediterranean and the Dead Sea.
  • In 332 BC, Alexander the Great conquered this area.
  • The Roman Republic invaded in 63 BC.
  • This was the period of Jesus Christ, for in AD 6, this region was annexed as the Roman province of Judaea.
  • The First Jewish-Roman War from AD 66-73 again destroyed Jerusalem, with a sizable portion of the population being killed or displaced.
  • Do you get the idea that the people living around Jerusalem have had a tough time throughout history?
  • There continued to be Roman rule, with Jewish uprisings into around 136 AD, with a small Jewish presence around Galilee.
  • Around AD 300, early Christianity displaced Roman paganism with Constantine, who was Roman emperor from AD 306 to AD 337.  He founded what is today Istanbul, so named later from Constantinople, which was the capital of the Roman Empire for over a thousand years.
  • War and more wars brought Arabization and Islamization until around 1100, which attracted the Crusades, sanctioned by the Pope, to wrestle Jerusalem and Holy Land from Muslim control.  
  • Christians were then in control for almost two hundred years, until Muslim rule was re-established in 1291.
  • In 1516 the Ottoman (Turkish) Empire conquered the region.
  • Jews were invited to return in 1561.
  • With Arab forays now and then, add some French Napoleonic influence, by 1840 with British support, Ottomon rule was restored.
  • Jews fled pogroms in Eastern Europe from 1881 led to migration to this area.  In a way, this was the solution to the Jewish question in European states.  Just from Russia, there was emigration of 3 million mostly Orthodox (the more traditional) Jews to this region between 1882 to 1914, but only 1% to Jerusalem.  Tel Aviv was established as the first planned Jewish town in 1909.
  • After World War One, Zionist volunteers and the British conquered Palestine.
  • There were Arab riots in Palestine in 1920.
  • In 1922, the League of Nations granted Britain control with the Jews.  The population on Palestine was only 11% Jewish.  Followed were an additional 100,000 Jews to Palestine by 1929.
  • The rise of Nazism led to a fifth movement and another quarter of a million Jews.
  • This led to another Arab revolt from 1936-39, and 10% of the Arab male population was killed wounded, imprisoned or exiled.
  • By the end of World War II, there were more immigrants from the Holocaust, and the Jewish population of Palestine rose to 31%.  Note that today, Palestine has 73.5% Jews and 21% Arabs.
  • Somehow, there is a perception that this problem between Israel and Arabs came from the UN settling Jews after WWII.  Nope, this has been festering from the beginning of time.
  • Who are the Palestinians?
    • They are Arabs who live in the geographic region spanning the Mediterranean Sea in the east to the Jordan River to the west.  
    • The name Palestine goes back to the 12th century BC, referring to the ancient state of the Philistines.
    • Palestinian territories are the Gaza Strip and West Bank.  
    • There are 14.3 million Palestinians:  3.2 million in the West Bank, 2.2 million in the Gaza Strip, 2.3 million in Jordan, 2 million in Israel, 569,000 in Syria, 500,000 in Chile, 461,000 in Saudi Arabia, 356,000 in Qatar, 255,000 in the USA, 200,000 in the UAE, 174,000 in Lebanon and many more in 15 other countries.  
    • 98% of all Palestinians are Muslim.
    • Since Biblical times, Israel and Palestine have had disputes over land.

The solution for now has to be a two-state Palestine plan.  The problem is that Israel, the Hamas, the Hezbollah and Iran don't want that.  The U.S. and Europe are just not trusted.  The key is Saudi Arabia.  If they can come up with an answer, the whole region can be stabilized.  Just look at the size of Saudi Arabia and Iran.  

So what is the future of Israel?  The Middle East has had this problem since the beginning of civilization.  There will be no solution this year or next.  You can hope for stabilization, as happenings here affect the world economy.  While the price of oil had a small uptick today to $70/barrel, the price a year ago was $90/bbl.  The Ukraine War has the potential to spark a nuclear war.  Not so for Iran, which apparently does have enough enriched uranium to build two Atomic-bombs, not enough to sustain a real war.  So there is today a kind of stalemate which will worsen over time.  For now, the future of Israel, with U.S. and U.K. partnerships, is secure.  Troubles with Iran proxies, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen will go on and on.  If Saudi Arabia decides to take on a more active peacemaking role, that would be an optimal pathway for now.

There are other noteworthy news items:

For baseball fans:

AMERICAN LEAGUE
  • Byes: No. 1 Yankees, No. 2 Guardians
  • Wild Card: No. 6 Tigers at No. 3 Astros (winner plays Guardians) -- preview here
  • Wild Card: No. 5 Royals at No. 4 Orioles (winner plays Yankees) -- preview here
NATIONAL LEAGUE
  • Byes: No. 1 Dodgers, No. 2 Phillies
  • Wild Card: No. 6 Mets at No. 3 Brewers (winner plays Phillies) -- preview here
  • Wild Card: No. 5 Braves at No. 4 Padres (winner plays Dodgers) -- preview here
One of my ESPN baseball teams came in second.  Two others were league champs.
Congrats champ, you won your league! 
Miami Beginner Roto League
PR1
Patrick Takahashi
96.0
Points
13.5
Ahead of 2nd

What a season! 
Congrats champ, you won your league! 
Baltimore Beginner Roto League
PR2
Patrick Takahashi
97.0
Points
13.0
Ahead of 2nd
Typhoon Krathon was earlier today at 150 MPH, but will weaken into a Category 3 when it makes landfall near Tainan, Taiwan, then slowly roll over the entire island as a tropical storm into the weekend, bringing a lot of rain.

Typhoon Jebi keeps strengthening and weakening, but was of hurricane strength when it eased past Japan to the west.

Kirk just became a hurricane today, and will strengthen into a Category 3.  But it is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

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