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WILL IT BE SAFE TO CRUISE THIS YEAR?

     From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404          151            ?       64 
         12          222      1995           136           9       21
         19          201      1801           115           20      31
         26          217      1528          136           14      49
June   2          216       1413         130          10       31
          9          195      1526         148           24       24 
        15          305      1382         289           11       26 
         23         266      1650        346            ?          7 
         29         326      1608        294           39       19 
         30         228      1517         274           23       29 
July    6          316      1627        335           35       12

Summary:

  • France had the most new cases, 154,615 yesterday, with Germany #2 135,402 and Italy #3 108,932.  U.S. #4 with 91,132.
  • #1 in new deaths was Brazil with 335.  U.S. #2 316 and Germany #3 108.

More and more, Omicron subvariants BA.5 (now 54% of cases in the U.S.) and BA.4 (17%) are taking over.  

  • They are both more contagious than previous variants, and seem to evade vaccines/boosters and previous infections, only a few months after the last shot.  
  • Mind you, vaccinations help in immunity, and more so do boosters, especially the second one.  But most who got all shots are getting into dangerous territory because vaccines lose effectiveness after a few months.  They still do a great of job of preventing bad symptoms, and dying is very rare if vaccinated.  
  • The next booster, this one specifically for BA.4/BA.5, will not be available until October, at the earliest.

Over the past few months, perhaps four individuals or couples living in my building took cruises, and three of them came down with COVID-19.  Luckily enough, we were the only ones not to be infected.  Fortunately, as we are double boosted, all symptoms were very mild.  

  • However,  looks like BA.4/BA.5 will continue to gain a stronger foothold in the coming months, and cases will not materially drop, and could increase, but only moderately.  
  • However, deaths should continue to drop to a point that in time, because of vaccinations and previous infections, might approach the mortality rate of the seasonal flu.

  • The U.S. mortality rate as of yesterday, using data from Worldometer, is 1.16%.
    • However, using the data from yesterday, the U.S. mortality rate is 0.35%.
    • This factor of three decline is because those fully vaccinated and boosted rarely die.  Same for repeat infections.

    • Similarly, the World mortality rate for COVID-19 now stands at 1.14%, about the same as the U.S.
      • However, using just the data from yesterday, the mortality rate for the World is 0.17%, half of the U.S., but still nearly ten times higher than the seasonal flu.
      • This is difficult to explain, for the U.S. has a much higher boosted rate than the World.  
      • It's possible that parts of the World are just not reporting COVID-19 deaths too accurately.

  • But WHO reports World deaths should be three times higher.  However, total cases could also be three times higher, for asymptomaticity can be as high as 90%.   So this current factor of COVID-19 mortality should still be ten times greater than the seasonal flu.
  • Notwithstanding, portions of the world are getting closer to the mortality rate of the flu, as we shall see.

The following analysis is for our travel purposes.  We have signed up to attend a gathering in Okinawa at the end of October.  We thought we would work in a cruise or two into the itinerary.  Here is what we know of those countries on our travel list 3.5 months before this journey, as of the data yesterday.  Mortality rate, with new deaths/million population in parentheses (the U.S. yesterday was at 0.94)

  • Japan:  0.05% (0.13), or 7 times lower than the U.S. and 3 higher than the seasonal flu
  • South Korea:  0.04% (0.14), or nearly 9 times lower than the U.S. and 2.5 times the flu
  • Australia:  0.10% (1.7), or 3.5 times lower than the U.S.
  • New Zealand:  0.07% (2.4). or 5 times lower than the U.S.
  • Taiwan:  0.27% (4.0), slightly better than the U.S.
  • Hong Kong:  0.04% (0.13), or nearly 9 times lower than the U.S. and 2.5 times the flu
  • Singapore:  0.02% (0.33), or 18 times lower than the U.S. and 1.7 times the flu
  • Thailand:  0.91% (0.31), 2.5 times higher than the U.S.
  • Vietnam:  0%
First, you can't too accurately compare with data from just one day.  So I'll do this again tomorrow and next week.  Second, while most of Oceania and the Orient are today much safer than the U.S. with respect to mortality rate, more people/capita in Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan are dying from COVID-19 than the U.S.

What cruise ships?  Which ones are dangerous.  Green is good, yellow is worse than green, orange is even worse and red is bad.  According to the CDC, currently:
  • Green  zero
  • Yellow  1
  • Orange  93
  • Red  zero
Cruzely reports on 94 ships, and as of July 4, they were all orange, except for a yellow, so matches well with the CDC.

How terrible is orange?  
  • Apparently okay.  
  • This color means that 0.3% OR MORE of passengers and crew tested positive.  That is only 3 cases for 1000 people.  The building I live in with perhaps 300 total have had more than 10 active cases at one time.  This outbreak has since dropped to almost no new cases.
  • I looked into this a bit and found that orange meant 0.3% or more of passengers and 1% or more of of the crew.
  • Most ships these days require a negative test within two days of departure.  
  • The terminology, however, is obscure if you read this CDC explanation. 

Cruise Ship Color Status Key
GreenNo reported cases of COVID-19 or COVID-19-like illness (CLI).
Yellow^Reported cases of COVID-19 are below the threshold for CDC investigation.
Orange^Reported cases of COVID-19 have met the threshold for CDC investigation.
Red†Reported cases of COVID-19 are at or above the threshold for CDC investigation. Additional public health measures are in place.
Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, said he would step down, but not until his Conservative Party selects a replacement.  Not sure if he will be able fend off an interim PM, but the following individuals show the most promise to run the country:
  • Ben Wallace 3/1 (25% chance of winning)
  • Rishi Sunak  4/1
  • Dominic Raab  11/2
  • Penny Mordaunt  6/1
  • Sajid Javid  8/1 (11%)
Add both numbers and divide into one.

That latest gun control legislation passed by Congress would not have prevented the Highland Park mass shooting.  The Democrats will now no doubt introduce a bill to prevent the sale of AR-15 style weapons.  Robert Crimo III's weapon to the left.  Of course this not pass, but the whole point is to further undercut Republicans for the November 8 mid-term elections.

Puppies:

And other animals:

_
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