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TOP STORIES OF THE DAY

 The top stories of the day start with our pandemic:

  • The world is set to reach a quarter billion COVID-19 cases tomorrow.  This means that slightly more than 3% got infected with this virus.
  • Today, the world experienced five million COVID-19 deaths.  
    • This represents 1 death for every 1500 people.
    • Traffic deaths, in the same 20 month period, showed 1 death for 3350 people.
    • Or, during this pandemic, you are about twice as likely to have died from COVID-19 than in a traffic accident.
  • This means the mortality rate is 2%.
  • The U.S. mortality rate is 1.6%.
  • Experts remain uncertain, but the best available info today indicates that 40-50% of those infected don't show any symptoms.  Amazingly enough, there were 28 studies on this subject by early this year, and the asymptomatic rate ranged from 1.4% to 78.3%.
  • Say the asymptomatic rate is 50%, then the world mortality rate is 1%.
  • The mortality rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
  • But the asymptomatic rate of the seasonal flu is probably also around 50%. 
  • Thus, there is a 20 times higher chance of dying from COVID-19 than the flu.

COP26 has begun in Glasgow.  Here is a pleasant surprise from the New York Times this morning:

Greenhouse gas emissions have been falling for about 10 years in the U.S. and Japan, and for even longer in Europe. More recently, they have begun falling in Brazil and Russia. A decade ago, the world was on pace to warm by about 7 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. Today, the number is closer to 5.5 degrees.

Mind you, 5.5 F is still far too much.  The biggest obstacle is the U.S., and therefore world, because they play follow the leader.  Who can you blame?  Republicans, Senator Joe Manchin and the Supreme Court, which will make climate regulation difficult.

The U.S. complains that China is mostly responsible for this problem:

And we're right.  But China says the USA is a bigger problem because we generate more greenhouse gases/capita than they do.

We are both right.  Such is the nature of the problem.

Otherwise, India represents a special problem because their population will pass that of China in 2027, and says they need financial help to meet certain remediation goals.  One of the goals of Glasgow is to secure ironclad financial commitments from the richer nations to help developing nations, and this just will not happen this year.  The problem is Senator Joe Manchin and the butterfly he killed.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, November 2, is a big day for national politics.  While several states will have elections, New Jersey and Virginia are the two to watch.  Both are currently totally (governor and two houses) run by Democrats.  

  • All signs point to New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy being re-elected, and both houses of their legislature staying Democratic.  
  • The Virginia McAuliffe (D) vs Youngkin (R) race for governor seems to be a toss-up.  
    • If Youngkin wins, the Trump-effect is a factor, and the Republicans will probably gain the majority in the U.S. Senate and House at the mid-term elections next year.
    • If McAuliffe wins, my hunch that a few percent of Republicans with high morals will just not show up to vote will prevail, and the mid-term elections on November 8, 2022 could well go Democratic if Trump continues to play a role.
    • Republicans want to keep Joe Biden's popularity low, so will not allow a vote on those two huge budget bills until after tomorrow.
    • The one key factor, I think, will be the Washington Post.  
      • That newspaper is popular in Virginia, read even by many Republicans.
      • Heather Cox Wilson reported:
Today the Washington Post published a long report about the events before, during, and after January 6, compiled by a team of more than 25 reporters and additional staff who reviewed video and court transcripts, followed social media posts, and interviewed more than 230 people. The report lays the blame for January 6 on Trump and warns that we are in a fight for the survival of democracy. 

  • Michelle Wu has a 99% chance of winning the Boston Mayoral Election
  • Herschel Walker has a 1% chance of becoming the Republican nominee for governor of Georgia
  • Hershel Walker has a 42% chance of becoming the next senator from Georgia
  • Emmanuel Macron has a 69% chance of being re-elected president of France (on 10April2022)
  • Rudy Giuliani will be the first of Trump cronies to be indicted:  58%
  • Donald Trump himself being the first to be indicted:  7%
  • Hillary Clinton to the first to be indicted:  less than 1%
  • If a real boxing match were held between Trump and Biden, Trump would have a 75% of winning
  • Manny Pacquiao will become the next president of the Philippines (9May2022):  36%
  • Bong Bong Marcos will become the next president of the Philippines:  56%
  • Gregg Abbott to be re-elected governor of Texas on 8November2022:  89%
  • Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the presidency in 2024:  40%
  • Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for the presidency in 2025:  36%
  • Michelle Obama:  3%
  • Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the presidency in 2024:  52%
  • #2 current candidate is Ron DeSantis as Republican nominee for the presidency in 2024:  17%

For no reason in particular, I end with a photo of a giraffe's eye I took on a photo safari:

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