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WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH $10 TRILLION?

 From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):


        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732        1185        246       82
July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120      572
Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835      130
Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168       82
Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703       85
Nov    25     2304    12025        620         518      118
Dec    30      3880    14748      1224        299      465
Jan     14     4142    15512       1151        189      712              
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
          25       2414    10578        1582       119      144
Mar     2        1989     9490        1726        110      194
          17        1289     9736        2736       171       74
          24          936   10206        3158       277       55
          25        1405   10470        2244       249     121
          26        1165   10331        2639        257    163
 

Summary:  

  • A little relief for the USA
    • Where much of this started, in the upper Eastern Seaboard--New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey-- shows a dangerous uptick in new cases
    • Florida and Michigan also are looking bad.
    • California still led with 242 new deaths yesterday, but their new cases number is declining.
  • Europe is not looking good and same for South America.  I wouldn't go traveling there anytime soon.
  • Some danger in the Philippines.
  • China?  No new deaths.  "Only" 4,636 have died, total.  Brazil yesterday had 2,639 deaths.
  • Worldwide, there were 622,386 new cases yesterday, with 126 million total cases and 2.8 million deaths.
  • Deaths/million population
    • World  355
    • India  116
    • UK  1855
    • Czechia  2383 (highest in world)
    • Nigeria  10
    • Singapore  5
    • Thailand  1
    • Vietnam  0.4
    • Tanzania  0.3
    • China  3
    • USA  1684
      • New York  2575
      • New Jersey  2739 (highest in nation)
      • Wyoming  1201
      • Hawaii  323 (lowest in Nation)
    • Japan  71
I mention Japan at 71 deaths/million at the end because they still remain at a high state of alert and will not allow foreigners as spectators for the Summer Olympics in July.  Hawaii at 323 is on the verge of totally opening up travel.  Can you believe New Jersey has the highest deaths/million in the world?

I had a weighty issue scheduled today, but, hey, it's Friday.  Someone this morning sent me the this mostly animation of how Rover got to Mars.  I thought, wow, what an engineering achievement.  Here, you watch it.  This NASA project will cost about $3 billion.  

I once worked for NASA at the Ames Research Center more than 40 years ago on a facet of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.  That assignment changed my thinking about what we should be doing in space.

Remember, Neil Armstrong had only recently then walked on the Moon, and that, in my mind, was the greatest thing Humanity had ever accomplished.  More than the technological accomplishment, it later turned out, was the political spark that eventually led to the end of the Cold War in the early '90's.  We beat the Soviet Union, saved our world society, and all that was linked to our landing on the Moon.

So how did my attitude about the USA space program change?  Well, since then, till today, and for many years to come in the future I suspect, I see no purpose in spending huge sums for no real reason other than romance.  Our destiny is not being challenged.  There is no enemy providing an incentive.  There is no incoming asteroid or earth-shaking need to leave our planet.  That object which killed off the dinosaurs occurred 66 million years ago.  We have the technology and time to handle this type of potential event.  For now we can better use our tax moneys for the people, environment, infrastructure and a thousand other more important priorities.

Sure, maintain a progressive and inspirational space effort, like SETI.  But anything that costs billions or trillions needs to be re-contemplated.  Six years ago it was reported that getting to Mars with humans would cost $1.5 trillion for a 2035 landing, and maybe $2 trillion if we establish a base on the Red Planet.

But then Space News said, nope, more probably $5 trillion, with a rise to $10 trillion or $15 trillion to be realistic.  The U.S. Gross Domestic Product was then $17.7 trillion.  I thought it made no sense then, and am even more convinced now that we should spend our tax dollars a lot more smartly.

Then along came Elon Musk, who twitted his Mars City being developed by 2050 for between $100 billion and $10 trillion.  


How much, really, is $10 trillion?
  • Well, the entire U.S. Interstate Highway system cost $0.5 trillion.
  • All the assets in the UK is valued at around $11.8 trillion.
  • Now that the U.S.'s GDP is at $20.5 trillion, only half of that.
  • You can buy the 10  highest-valued companies and get $3.6 trillion in change.
  • Incidentally, that $3.6 trillion can end world poverty--calculated to cost $175 billion for 20 years-- which will still leave you with $100 billion to spend.

On the other hand, if Elon Musk can build his Mars City for $100 billion (he is worth $171.6 billion, second to Jeff Bezos at $193.4 billion) using his money, terrific.  He will charge a $1 million/person to get there, and maybe, depending on when you ask him, perhaps only $100,000.  There are those who pay a million dollars just to move into a seniors' community.  There might be a market.

In a decade or two there should be more knowledge about the dangers of cosmic rays, which some have said will make outer space travel impossible.  Maybe a more advanced and efficient form of propulsion will yet be invented.  But that is probably a hundred-year goal.  Until we have an urgent need to leave Planet Earth, I don't see any reason for spending trillions today just to establish colonies in space, the Moon, Mars or Titan.  There is too much yet to do on our sensitive globe, home to 7.7 billion humans.  Maybe by 2100 something more lofty might be justified, or the Year 3000.

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