THE FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732       1185        246       82

July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120      572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835      130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136      1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571       703       85

Nov    25     2304    12025        620       518      118

Dec    30     3880    14748       1224       299     465

Jan     14       4142    15512        1151        189      712              

Feb      3       4005   14265       1209       107     398

          25        2414    10578        1582       119      144

Mar     2        1989     9490        1726       110      194

            9        1704    9036        1954        113      103

Summary:  Looking better for the U.S., India, South Africa and World.  Not so for Brazil, which had 69,537 new cases, compared to "only" 55,683 for the U.S.  France is #3 with 23,302 new cases, and #4 Italy with 19,615.

From the New York Times:

• Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri said he would not seek re-election next year. He is the fifth Republican senator to announce his retirement; no Democrats have done so.

Someone sent me this graphic about wind energy:

I thought, how can this be true when our winds provide the lowest cost electricity generation source compared to coal, nuclear, solar and even natural gas.  So I checked.

For wind energy conversion devices, the key is location, location, location.  A device placed in a site where the wind speed averages 20 miles per hour produces 8 times more energy than one at 10 MPH.  The power increases with the cube of the wind velocity.

I've long thought that the ultimate wind energy system for Hawaii was a floating wind farm placed in a controlled gyre between Maui and the Big Island.  That wind regime is amplified by those tall volcanoes, which streamline air flow into that ocean gap.  Hawaii's winds are excellent on land, but tend to bring turbulence because of those rolling hills.  The result affects the gearing of wind machines.  The ocean wind regime is laminar, or smooth. Further, the speeds are higher, averaging more than 20 MPH, and going up to 27 MPH:

The question for Hawaii is how do you get the produced energy to land?  Three options come to mind:

• converting the electricity produced into hydrogen
• a microwave beam
• a laser beam

There has been progress on Space-based Solar Power (SSP).  That is, place a solar power farm in geosynchronous orbit, using either photovoltaics or solar thermal, beam the converted solar radiation back to Earth using microwave or laser technology.  This concept was first mentioned by Isaac Asimov in his short story, Reason.  

In 1973 Peter Glaser got a patent for transmitting power over long distances.  So almost half a century ago, more interested in using his space concept for the transmission of beamed power from the ocean, I had several interactions with Glaser on this subject.  He advised NASA from his position with Arthur D. Little.  I remember visiting his office in Boston and attending one of his conferences on Space Power.

The world will have a capacity of 800,000 megawatts of windpower this year.  According to 2019 statistics, China is by far the leading country:

• #1 China  23,000 MW (44.8%)
• #2 U.S.  7,588 MW (14.8%)
• #3 Germany  3,371 MW (6.6%)

29 countries now generate more than 1000 MW of windpower, while nine produce more than 10,000 MW.  

• Keep in mind that a typical nuclear power reactor is rated at around 1000 MW.  
• In other words, one way of looking at this is that our current renewable capacity is on the order of 800 nuclear powerplants.  
• The reality, however, is only 400 because nuclear facilities are highly efficient, while sunlight and winds are intermittent.  
• This is also the advantage of coal, natural gas, biomass, geothermal and OTEC, for these produce constant or baseload power.
• The future of solar and wind will depend on storage:
• Batteries are making inroads, but on final analysis, will not be able to provide adequate and cost-effective back-up.
• This role is best played by hydrogen, which is longer term, but also shows promise for next generation aviation.

• 
  Other comparisons:
• Our winds are only responsible for 5% of global electricity.  
• In the U.S., this figure is 6.6%, plus an additional 7% from hydropower (dams).  
• Around the world, just about a quarter of the electricity comes from renewables, with hydro leading at 16%.  
• Solar today in the U.S. is a third what wind does, but in 2050 is expected to be half of all the renewable energy produced.  The key will be how to deal with clouds and sunset.

One other point I want to make is that only 38% of the energy used goes towards electrical production.  Click on that spaghetti graph to read it. The rest goes to other uses like transport, etc.  Renewables are doing fine in making a small dent in electricity.  We are doing almost nothing for the other 62%!!!

Finally, the three largest wind energy conversion device manufacturers are Siemens of Germany, Vestas of Denmark and GE of the USA.  Siemens will provide a farm of 14 MW offshore turbines (below photo) for Dominion Energy's Coastal Virginia Offshore Project.  This $7.8 billion effort aims at 2,640 MW by 2026.

Below is a photo of their 8 MW turbine:

However, you can't really get that sense of hugeness until you view the following:

Keep in mind that this nacelle is for the Siemens' 8 MW turbine.  Can you image how large the 14 MW version will be?  GE also has a 14 MW turbine.  They both feature blades that are approximately 117 yards long, and that is just about the distance between the goalposts on a football field.  GE will provide their machines for the largest offshore wind farm in the world upon completion in 2026 off the UK:  3.6 gigawatts (36,000 MW) of electricity to power 6 million homes.

Another comparison:

Vestas was the early pioneer in developing gigantic turbines, starting with 0.055 MW in 1981, to 0.5 MW in 1995 to 2 MW in 1999.  The current conceptual limit is 50 MW, with 220-yard blades.  However, on the drawing boards is a 100 MW turbine having rotors with a diameter of 600 yards, more than three times the height of the Washington Monument.

Still, not nearly as high as the Burj Khalifa, which is 911 yards tall.  Seriously stalled is the 1000 meter (1093 yards) Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia.  It seems certain that the Burj Khalifa will still be the tallest building when the Dubai World Expo is held.  This would be a half hour taxi ride.

Planners were expecting 11 million foreign visitors.  The population of Dubai is 3.3 million.  Certain Expo sites have already had soft openings to gain the support of locals.  

One current problem is that they are just recovering from a third wave of COVID-19 cases.   

• However, the U.S. deaths/million figure is 1627.  The United Arab Emirates (of which Dubai is a part) is at 136.
• Hawaii's number is 314, which is the lowest in the nation.  Yet, this is more than double the rate of deaths compared to UAE.

 Opening day is October 1, 2021, slightly more than half a year away.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its all-time average, up 464 to 32,297.

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