A NATION ON EDGE

From Worldometer:

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093    4732       1185       246          82

July    22     1205    7128        1293      1120        572

Aug    12     1504     6556       1242       835        130

Sept     9     1208    6222        1136      1168          82

Oct      8        957     6420        730       967        160

           12       316     3757           203       710          83

           13       843     5006         354       723        165

           14       970     6075          716       694        123

           21     1225     6849           571       703         85

           29     1047      7172          565       568         53

           30      988      7513         529       550         66

Nov      2      522      5712         168       497         54

Summary:  

• Before you begin celebrating, wait until what you will see tomorrow.  
• Particularly troublesome is that the USA remains #1 with 88,905 new cases and France #2 with 52,518.
• Switzerland, with a population of 8.5 million, had 21,926 new cases.  As the U.S. has a population of 328 million, if we were that bad on a new cases/capita equivalent, our new cases number would have been 846,085!!!  Thus, Switzerland has around a ten times higher rate of new infections/capita.
• In short, Europe is being overwhelmed by a new COVID-19 wave, and we seem to be entering into one, too.
• Don't want to particularly discourage you on this election day, but, according to the World Bank, the number of new deaths for the USA on 31 December 2020 will be:
• If there is continued push for the economy:   3801 (or around four times higher than today)
• The most likely number:                                    2205
• With universal (95%) mask-wearing              1221 (what are the odds that 95% of Americans will be wearing masks when they go out?)
• Even more frightening, here is the World Bank projection of the total number of new cases expected for the USA on 31 December 2020, including asymptomatic cases:
• Opened up economy:                               686,596
• Most likely:                                                 305,749
• With universal mask-wearing:                 172,206
• Note that, WITH UNIVERSAL MASK-WEARING, the total (including asymptomatic) number of new COVID-19 cases at the end of the year will be around double what we have today (but does not include asymptomatic cases, except for those tested).  As best as I can tell, they are projecting that the asymptomatic rate is around 46%.  We all know what an asymptomatic case is today, but if you don't, these are the infected ones who are walking around not showing any symptoms.

On October 23 I already predicted that Joe Biden would be the next president of the USA.  I remain optimistic, but most responsible Democratic leaders this past week have expressed anxiety about the closeness of the race.  My sense is that they are doing this to scare Democrats to vote.

In any case, if you are a concerned citizen of the USA, you would be on edge today.  On this election day, we remain uncertain if democracy will prevail.  If Trump is re-elected, we are doomed.  If Biden prevails, Trump could pull a coup and try to remain in office.  He is anticipating some bad public reaction when he does this because yesterday a new non-scalable fence was built around the White Hose to better protect the President.  Two hundred and fifty national guardsmen have been put on standby to protect him.

In some major cities, businesses are boarding up their windows in anticipation of the worst.  Here is my take on what could happen today:

• Today is not a national holiday, but is for some states, like Hawaii.
• While the expectation is that we won't know until tomorrow or Thursday or later who really won, I think we will have a reasonably good idea tonight.
• Alaska will be the last state to vote, with the deadline at 1AM EDT.  Hawaii is one hour earlier.
• It would not surprise me if before those deadlines Florida will have released the majority of votes cast, including early votes, making it reasonably clear who will be our next president.

• 
  At 3PM Hawaii time (8PM in Florida):
• If Biden is leading by at least 4 points, he will become our next president.
• If Donald Trump is ahead, we could be in for a long night into Wednesday.  Then Pennsylvania becomes important.  The difference is that Florida counts early votes ahead of time and Pennsylvania waits until November 3.  If Pennsylvania becomes so important that it determines who will become the next president, we might be waiting until Friday.

• 
  By 4PM Hawaii time, we will know the early status of  Texas.
• If Biden is losing all the above states, but is ahead by a few points in Texas, he will be elected president.
• If Trump is leading in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas, then Arizona becomes important. 

• 
  By 5PM or 6PM Hawaii time Arizona will report, so there should be some sense of who will become our next president.
• If Trump is ahead in Arizona, chances are the nation will wait until Friday for Pennsylvania to officially report.  Latest polls:

Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — 1.2 to 4.7 percentage points, depending on the polling average — is not quite big enough for Democrats to be completely confident in it, particularly given what happened in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state and the polls underestimated Trump’s performance there by about 4 points.

If news channels have not declared Biden president by midnight, Donald Trump could just declare victory, and hope the courts support him.

• The Justice Department will spearhead this coup for Trump.

• 
  How will the Supreme Court react?
• Even if there are 6 conservative and 3 liberal judges, all signs are that they will uphold the Constitution.
• Donald Trump should lose here.
• What about the Congress, the Department Defense and FBI?
• If Democrats control both the House and Senate after the election, Trump won't succeed.
• If Republicans maintain leadership in the Senate, who knows.
• If retired generals have any sway over active duty generals, the DOD should resist a coup.
• Trump is set to fire Christopher Wray, which means that the FBI will be an obstacle for him.
• Republicans have 26 state governors, Democrats 25.
• Republicans have the advantage in number of state legislative bodies:  they can step-in to make adjustments to the electoral college process.

Everyone knows that Donald Trump lies, cheats and can be dangerous for democracy.  These character flaws, while impulsively ignored by those who vote him, will nevertheless play a role in the final judgement of all those political organization above, including the Republican Party.  The ideal outcome, of course, is a Biden landslide victory, which remains possible.  Short of that outcome, the nation will be on edge.  However, I'm an optimistic, and sensibility should eventually prevail.  Joe Biden will be victorious.

If you know anything about betting, PredictIt shows two interesting maps, one for the presidency, and a second for the U.S. Senate.  But you will need to again clinic on the Senate map.  Interesting that the result they show indicates Democrats will end up with 51 senators, and Republicans 49.

American sportsbooks cannot accept bets.  On the other hand, free-to-play contests aren't considered to be betting.  At FanDuel, there is a Bet the Ballot contest that includes Who will win the U.S. presidency.  Joe Biden is at -175 and Donald Trump is +138.  What do these numbers mean?  Look at the right column and go to ODDS CALCULATOR near the bottom (or just click on that ODDS CALCULATOR link here).  Just follow directions where you will get to a page where you will enter -175 into the top box (Moneyline/American Odds).  Then, click on SUBMIT.  Numbers will appear in the other boxes.  You will see that the Implied Probability will show Biden having a 63.64% chance of winning.

DraftKings has a $100,000 pool.  Both FanDuel and DK do this so you join their sports betting system.

It is, however, legal to bet in Europe and at least a sum of $1 billion has thus far been wagered on the presidency, double the amount for 2016.  This is more than the Super Bowl and similar to the Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor bout in 2017.  In any case, our presidential election will be Europe's largest betting event this year.

A European sportsbook, Betfair shows this:

     Joe Biden          -227      66.7%

     Donald Trump  +188     33.3%

Betfair has collected $415 million in wagers, shattering all previous records for presidential elections.

On the other hand, in 2016, Trump trumped these European sportsbooks, for he was a huge underdog:

With just one week to go, at offshore sportsbooks and at shops in the betting-mad United Kingdom, Clinton remains a substantial favorite, with odds hovering around -300 – meaning one must bet $300 to win $100. Meanwhile, Trump is in the range of a +275 underdog – meaning a $100 bet could bring in $275.

If you went through the motions of finding out what were the chances of a Trump win, you would have seen 40%.  This year, though, he is closer to 33%.  Will this make a difference?

Song #57 will come from:

• Tzena Tzena Tzena:  The Weavers
• Brazil:  Xavier Cugat
• The Third Man Theme:  Anton Karas

Tzena, Tzena, Tzena was written in 1941 by Issachor Miron, a Polish emigrant who left for Palestine at the age of 19 to escape the Holocaust.  In 1946 Gordon Jenkins made an arrangement for The Weavers, which reached #2 on Billboard.  But that is because #1 was Goodnight Irene on the flip side.  I first heard this song, I think, in a film, The North Star (the whole production), but I can't seem to find any such credits.  Maybe I should see that movie again.

Brazil was written by Ary Barroso in 1939.   The most popular version came from Xavier Cugat, which reached #2.  Django Reinhardt is also recognized for this song.  This is a samba song.

The story is that in the making of The Third Man (RT: 99/93), a 1949 British film, director Carol Reed and cast members, including Orson Welles and Joseph Cotten, had dinner, then went into a wine cellar bistro.  Playing the zither was 40-year old Anton Karas, there just for tips.  Reed immediately recognized that this was it.  Said Karas:

The composition that became famous as "The Third Man Theme" had long been in Karas's repertoire, but he had not played it in 15 years. "When you play in a café, nobody stops to listen," Karas said. "This tune takes a lot out of your fingers. I prefer playing 'Wien, Wien', the sort of thing one can play all night while eating sausages at the same time."[3]

Released in 1950, The Third Man Theme, or, The Harry Lime Theme, spent 11 weeks at #1 on Billboard.  Whenever Orson Welles, who was Harry Lime, went, that music forever followed him.

Final aside.  I've stayed at the Tokyo Westin maybe 50 different times, from when it first opened in 1994.  In Japan the song is also informally known as the Ebisu Beer Theme, still used in Japan today.  The tune is used at Ebisu Station to inform passengers of departing trains.  This Westin is located at the shopping center adjacent to the station.  The background music made the movie and I can't get it out of my mind.  The Third Man Theme deserves to be #57.  

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