THE ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR IS CATALYZING SURPRISING DEVELOPMENTS

You know this Israel-Hamas War is newsworthy because I've been gazing at MSNBC all morning, and there has yet to be even one commercial.  On nostalgic Tuesday today, I focus on the Hamas and the Gaza Strip.  My posting 15 years ago said:

 End to the Gaza Strip War: “Why don’t those #&%#@* Hamas idiots just stop lobbing rockets into Israel,” courtesy of a golf buddy pundit expressed at the Ala Wai Golf Course Clubhouse. He wanted me to repeat this in my daily blog, but I thought we should protect both of us from any possible fatwa by not specifically identifying the source. 

Two years later in 2010, I reported that the 128th country to visit this blog site, was the Gaza Strip, with, then, a population of 1.5 million.  

• I might add that I am now up to 221 entities and 2,731,530 pageviews.  That 875,512 pageviews in the graphic is because, I stopped paying Google many years ago to carry my blog.
• While there are only 195 countries in the world, their are 221 entries because some are not countries, like Antarctica.
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  21 entities have not seen my site, like the Vatican City, Falkland Islands, North Korea, Nauru, Kiribati and Christmas Island.  Click on that link and if you have any connections to those locations, ask them to join this blog.  Confusing is that Christmas Island is now called Kirimati, which is part of Kiribati, once called the Gilbert Islands.

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  There have been 231,788 visitors from the USA, and surprisingly enough, #2 is Singapore, with 74,952.

As you can see, this Israeli-Palestine conflict had been one-sided with respect to deaths.  Not this time, for while 1500 dead Hamas bodies have been counted on Israeli land so far, at least a thousand Israelis have so far been killed or abducted.  Here is the current situation regarding the Israel-Hamas War.

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  First, Israel was close to forming an authoritarian government, and the Hamas attack possibly ended that pathway.  

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  Benjamin Netanyahu needs to quickly form a united government, and he will only get that if he dismisses a few of his supporters and leans back towards democracy.  
• With all the rhetoric flying around, as of this moment, this has not yet occurred.
• If Netanhayu fails to gain total cooperation, this will become a very difficult war.

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  If he succeeds, there should be swift retribution, meaning Israel will attempt to root out the Hamas from the Gaza Strip and change the leadership.  But how do your eliminate a population that was elected to run the country?  All the other terrorist organizations in the Middle East represent only a tiny percentage of the population.  And still both Russia and the USA lost to them in Afghanistan.
• There is worry that the powerful Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah, could take a more active role.

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  The Gaza Strip:
• Was part of Egypt from 1948 to 1967.
• Borders Egypt on the southwest for 6.8 miles, and Israel on east and north along a 32 mile border.  Total area of 141 square miles, just about the size of the island of Lanai.
• Population of 2.3 million, making it the 3rd most densely populated political unit in the world.
• Sunni Muslims make up 99.8% of the population.
• Is blockaded by Egypt and Israel.  However, there are more than 1200 tunnels along the Egypt border that is controlled, but still used to ship in rockets and other stuff.
• More than 20,000 rockets have been lobbed into Israel by the Hamas since 2001.

Note the year 1967 above, when the 6-day war with Arabs occurred.

• This was the third war with Palestinian guerrilla groups in Syria, Lebanon and Jordan.

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  The difference was that Egypt played a supportive role to the terrorists.
• Israel started this war with a pre-emptive air strike destroying 90% of Egypt's air force.
• Israel lost 700, while the 17,000 Arabs were killed.
• Israel's victory led to capture of the Gaza Strip, plus Sinai Peninsula, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem and Golan Heights.  
• Led to the Camp David Accords between Israel and Egypt, plus what became a two-state solution with the Palestinians.

In 1973 came the Yom Kippur War, the fourth conflict.

• This was the big one with a lot of long term consequences.  
• The U.S. intelligence community failed to foresee anything much.
• Conflict started and ended after 19 days in October.
• The Arab coalition, mainly Egypt and Syria, launched a surprise attack against Israel on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur.  
• Iran never got involved.  However, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Sudan, East Germany, Algeria, Pakistan and North Korea did aid the Arabs.

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  Early in the war, Israel was losing and seriously considered using nuclear weapons.  
• Israel would have lost if not for military supplies from the U.S., more than $5 billion worth today.
• It was during this war that Saudi Arabia reduced oil production, initiating the First Energy Crisis!  The spark was King Faisal of Saudi Arabia declaring an oil embargo against the U.S. when President Richard Nixon began to supply arms to Israel.
• A huge danger was that Russia supported the Arabs and the USA helped Israel, which could have led to worldwide nuclear war.  The Soviet Union had 97 ships in the Mediterranean, many with nuclear warheads.  The U.S. had 60 vessels.
  
• Warfare was intense, with Israel fighting two fronts, Egypt and Syria, plus naval and air encounters.
• But Israel prevailed.
• Negotiations led to the 1978 Camp David Accords, leading to a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979, the first Arab country to recognize Israel as a country.  Egypt in return began a three year process of regaining the Sinai Peninsula from Israel. 

The Hamas has been running the Gaza Strip since 2007.

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  However, the last real election was 15 years ago.
• While largely financed by Iran, keep in mind that Iran is Shia, while the Hezbollah and most of the Arab nations are Sunni.  In general, they are their own worst enemies.
• There is a small contingent of Hamas in the West Bank.

Good time to introduce the Iron Dome Defense system, which was designed by the Israelis, but more recently has had major U.S. fund assistance. 

• Concept began in 2004 after the Hezbollah fired rockets from Lebanon.

• First used in 2011, and by 2012 intercepted 90% of Gaza rockets.  By 2014 destroyed 1200 rockets.  In 2014 it was estimated that it cost from $70,000 - $100,000 to intercept a rocket.  Mind you a Patriot missile can cost up to $3 million/shot.
• But the type of rockets used by terrorists only cost several hundred to thousand dollars each.
• In 2021 there was an estimated 30,000 rockets and mortar bombs in Gaza.
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  In 2021 the Iron Dome system intercepted 90% of all rockets.  Also good for drones.  
• Yet, there are reports that Iron Dome only intercepted 59-75% of threatening rockets during Protective Edge, and 32% during Pillar of Defense.
• The Iron Dome can be jammed by the enemy.
• The U.S. has purchased a few of these systems.
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  But a newer laser system began deployment last year to complement the existing defense.  While the laser defender is cheaper per target, the range is shorter and clouds are a problem.
• The bottom line is that, while Iron Dome generally works, air raids and bunker shelters are reliable.

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  Israel was declared a state in 1948, formed on Palestine lands from Roman times and mentioned by The Bible as Jewish kingdoms.  After King Solomon's death around 930 BC, his kingdom split into Israel and Judah.  However, opposition governments don't recognize Israel, and still call the entire area Palestine.

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and a delegation of U.S. senators met with Xi Jinping yesterday in Beijing.  Said Schumer:

"I urge you and the Chinese people to stand with the Israeli people and condemn the cowardly and vicious attacks upon them,” Schumer told Xi in the meeting, which he attended with a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers. “I say this with respect, but I was disappointed by the foreign minister’s statement showing no sympathy or his support for the Israeli people during these tragedies."

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  Seven hours later, Xi called for an "immediate ceasefire" and reiterated support for an independent Palestinian state.
• In June of this year Xi  met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Beijing and said that this territory should become a full member of the United Nations.  He also proposed an international peace conference on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and indicated he was willing play an active role in facilitating peace talks.
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  In March Xi brokered a tentative detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
• In September, Xi hosted Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in China, the first time any Arab leader had visited the country.
• In short, Xi wants to build closer ties with the Arab world.

Leaving aside the machinations of Iran, Russia and Arab countries for now, what options exist for the Israeli government?

• This was their fifth Arab war.
• In the past, Israel, with U.S. help, never lost.

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  The problem this time is that the Hamas doesn't want peace.  And they have hostages.
• How can Israel keep bombing the Gaza Strip?  Too many innocents will be killed.  The world will turn.
• They can't attack the Gaza Strip and root out only the Hamas.  The Hamas dominate and is leading the country because they were voted into office.  What about their families?  What about the hostages?
• Then up north is the Hezbollah, with 150,000 rockets awaiting launching.

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  And what about Netanyahu?  He is facing three separate cases of graft.  While his legal problems pale compared to Donald Trump, who attempted a failed coup, where people died, first you wonder about what would happen to the USA if Trump somehow become president again in 2024.  Second, you got to be concerned about how well Netanyahu can unite the country with all his problems, and his attempt to destroy democracy by neutralizing justice?

So what surprising developments has the Israel-Hamas War catalyzed?

• Solidifying China as a peacemaker in the Middle East.

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  The next week or two will end up with a new Speaker of the House.  Another surprise about the Israel-Hamas War is that the crisis could well lead to bi-partisan cooperation in the House.
• If Netanyahu compromises, Israel's current path to autocracy could well be derailed for the sake of unity, leading back towards democracy.
• One more item is that it was the Yom Kippur War that initiated those energy crises, raising the price of oil from $2/barrel to what it is today.  Note, taking into consideration inflation, while it looked like the price of oil rested at $2 from after World War II to the Yom Kippur War, that graph below shows an inflation-accounted-for $20/barrel during those days.

• In particular, note how Middle East Wars have jerked up the price of petroleum, leading to worldwide recessions.  Where would the world economy be today if oil remained at this $20/barrel level?

Oh my, Hurricane Lidia has shot up to 140 MPH.  While earlier models showed the eye making landfall north of Puerto Vallarta, now the projection is south of this city, meaning models are only iffy.

Yesterday I said that Monday was Moldy Cheese Day.  Thus, I changed by lunch to include Roquefort Cheese.

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