THE LATEST SCOOP ON THOSE VACCINES

If you don't have much time today, you can skip all the data presented at the front, and go to the end of the posting just before the portion about purple colored ocean storms.  Those bits of information presented there will immediately improve your day.

This past Thursday I posted on:

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COVID-19 VACCINES

However, Ray Kamada sent me the very latest.  In particular, the AGAINST SEVERE DISEASE column is worthy of note.

Efficacy by country where trials were conducted -

VACCINE	DOSES	OVERALL	AGAINST SEVERE DISEASE	U.S.	U.K.	S. AFRICA	L. AMERICA
Moderna	2	94.1%	100%	95%	-	-	-
Pfizer/BioNTech	2	95%	90%	95%	-	-	-
AstraZeneca	2	62%	?	-	60%	-	64.2%
AstraZeneca (½ + full dose)	2	90%	?	-	90%	-	-
J&J	1	66%	100%	72%	-	57%	66%
Novavax	2	-	100%	-	89.3%	49.4%	-

Other Info

VACCINE	MODERNA	PFIZER/BIONTECH	ASTRAZENECA	J&J	NOVAVAX
Type	mRNA	mRNA	DNA/ Adenovirus	DNA/ Adenovirus	Protein
Dose	2	2	2	1	2
Days between doses	28	21	28	-	21
Storage Temperature	-20oC -4oF	-70oC -94oF	2°C to 8°C 36oF to 46oF	2°C to 8°C 36oF to 46oF	2°C to 8°C 36oF to 46oF
Date of Phase 3 Prelim. Results	Nov 16, 2020	Nov 18, 2020	Nov 23, 2020	Jan 29, 2021	Jan 28, 2021
Report Published	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No
Approx. cost per dose	$25 - $37	$19 - $23	$4	$10	$16
FDA Emergency Approval	Yes	Yes	No Approved in other countries	Next week or two?	Next week or two?
Expected doses for the U.S.	100m by end of March,  200m by end of June	170m by the end of June		100m by end of June	150m a month, starting May or June, globally

Vaccine Types

1. mRNA: The Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines contain Coronavirus spike protein mRNA strands encased in lipids, which enter the human cell. The human cell then produces Coronavirus spike proteins
2. Viral-Vector: The J&J/Janssen and AstraZena/Oxford vaccines use an Adenovirus to carry the Coronavirus spike protein DNA into the human cell. The human cell then produces Coronavirus spike proteins.
3. Protein-based: The Novavax vaccine contains (ready-made) Coronavirus spike protein nanoparticles, grown in the lab, in insect cells. The vaccine also contains a saponin-based adjuvant (extracted from the soapbark tree native to Chile), which boosts the immune response to produce more antibodies.

	B.1.1.7	B.1.351	P.1
Other names	501Y.V1	501Y.V2	501Y.V3
First Identified in	U.K.	S. Africa	Brazil
Date of Identification	Sep 2020	Oct 2020	Dec 2020
Mutations	23	21	17
Spike Mutations	8	9	10
Key mutations	N501Y, E69/70 deletion, P681H, Y144 deletion, orf1ab deletion	N501Y, E484K, K417N, L18F,D80A, orf1ab deletion	N501Y, E484K, K417T, L18F,H655Y, orf1ab deletion
Increased transmissibility	>40%	Probably similar to B.1.1.7	suspected
Increased lethality	>29% suspected	Probably similar to B.1.1.7	?
Reduced vaccine efficacy	?	Yes	?
Re-infection (immune escape)	?	Some evidence from S. Africa	suspected

There is optimism for science tackling these variants, possibly as a follow-up dose:

• Novavax has plans to begin clinical development on a vaccine targeted to the variants.
• Moderna and BioNTech are also creating modified vaccines to address B.1.351.
• Others will likely follow suit.

Seems like too much data, but:

From www.bloomberg.com/…, here are the stats on doses administered so far. (The USA, with 4% of the world population, has taken nearly 30% of all the vaccinations.) We have a long way to go (those 30.5 million shots only represent 5% of the U.S. population because two shots are necessary), but the pace is picking up.

	WORLD	USA
Doses administered	94.4 million across 62 countries	30.5 million
Latest doses per day	4.47 million	1.35 million
Population	7,674 million	328 million

Now you know everything about those COVID-19 vaccines.  On the other hand, should you want more:

1. How the Novavax Vaccine Works — www.nytimes.com/…
2. Novavax press release — ir.novavax.com/…
3. Novavax Healthcare Conference slides — www.novavax.com/…
4. Novavax trial results summary slides — www.novavax.com/…
5. Johnson & Johnson Announces Single-Shot Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Met Primary Endpoints in Interim Analysis of its Phase 3 ENSEMBLE Trial — www.jnj.com/…
6. AZD1222 Oxford Phase III trials interim analysis results published in The Lancet — www.astrazeneca.com/…
7. A Guide to Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variant — www.the-scientist.com/...
8. Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants — www.cdc.gov/…
9. SARS-CoV-2 lineages — cov-lineages.org/…
10. SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 escapes neutralization by South African COVID-19 donor plasma — www.biorxiv.org/…
11. mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and circulating variants — www.biorxiv.org/...
12. A comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines — www.dailykos.com/…
13. Moderna says COVID-19 Vaccine is effective against variants from U.K. and S. Africa — www.dailykos.com/…

I was also sent the following info:

George Stephanopolis show had a chart from New England Journal of Medicine.  Efficacy of first shot:

                   Moderna           80

                   J & J                    72

                   Pfizer                  52

Note, of course, that the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines need two injections.  Finally, from The New York Times this morning:

By those measures, all five of the vaccines — from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — look extremely good. Of the roughly 75,000 people who have received one of the five in a research trial, not a single person has died from Covid, and only a few people appear to have been hospitalized. None have remained hospitalized 28 days after receiving a shot. In truth, so long as the data holds up, any of the five vaccines can save your life. Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them.

As this is winter, there are no hurricanes around the USA.  However, it is summer in the southern hemisphere, and there are three cyclonic storms surrounding Fiji:

Cyclone Ana, in particular, just caused serious damage.  However, I did not realize that there are five different systems of categorizing these storms in the south, unless you're in India, which has seven:

On Sunday night, local time, Ana strengthened into a severe tropical cyclone as it began moving away from Fiji, reaching Category 3 tropical cyclone strength. This is equivalent to a strong Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale.

The northern half of the world only has three methods.  But the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific use different systems.  In all locations, it depends on where you are.  For the USA, stick to the Saffir-Simpson scale, for beginning at the indicated MPH, categories are:

• 1    74
• 2    96
• 3  111
• 4  130
• 5  157

The miles per hour figure is based on the wind speed averaged over a one-minute interval 10 meters above the surface.  With the advent of warmer temperatures, being considered are:

• 6  195
• 7  230

The most humongous ocean storm?  On 12 October 1979 Typhoon Tip, heading for Japan, reached 190 MPH, with a diameter of 1380 miles.  Here is what Tip would have looked like over the USA:

That year, 1979, the season never ended in the Pacific Ocean:

• Depressions:  54
• Named storms:  24
• Typhoons:  12
• Super typhoons (150 MPH+):  12

However, the 2020 Atlantic season was also impressive:

• Total storms:  31 (tied with 2005)
• Hurricanes:  13
• Major hurricanes (3, but only 111 MPH+):  6

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